Will The Improving Economic Forecast Give Obama A Second Term

News out today that the US unemployment figures fell again last month, and by more than predicted. This complements other signs elsewhere that sugest the US economy is beginning a recovery. And with the economy likely to dominate the elections later this year, will this news effectively guarantee the Democratic president a second term in office?

If I was a betting man (which, as it happens, I am) then my money would be on YES. And it seems the guys at Forbes agree.

By turning the tables on congress in his speech today, Obama gives an indication that he has started the ball rolling in terms of the recovery, and challenges them “not to muck it up”. That shifts the focus back onto the republicans, and it’s a tricky one to answer. When things are gooing well, all you can say in response is “yes but they should be even better” and that’s much harder than arguing against a government when things are not going so well.

This means that whoever out of Romney and Gingrich prevails (and my money is on Romney, simply because he has so much more money behind him) is going to have a much tougher task to oust Obama from office than might otherwise have been the case. So Mitt, the smart money says that you’re pouring a lot of campaign dollars into a project that is highly unlikely to succced. Best of luck!